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Team Biden bets an unfiltered Trump at the debate can shake up the race

GOP pollster Frank Luntz said the June 27 faceoff will be “the most important debate since JFK-Richard Nixon.”

This is from the History.com article on the Kennedy-Nixon debates.

• … Nixon bashed his knee on a car door while campaigning in North Carolina and developed an infection that landed him in the hospital; he emerged two weeks later frail, sallow and 20 pounds underweight.
• Nixon’s streak of bad luck continued. Stepping out of the car, he banged his bad knee and exacerbated his earlier injury. The vice president had recently suffered a bout of the flu and was still running a low fever; he had nonetheless spent a grueling day on the campaign trail and looked drained. Kennedy, meanwhile, had been holed up in a hotel with his aides for an entire weekend, fielding practice questions and resting up for the first of four “Great Debates.”
• Despite Nixon’s exhaustion and Kennedy’s preparedness, the Republican and Democrat were more or less evenly matched when it came to substance. Each held forth skillfully and presented remarkably similar agendas. Both emphasized national security, the threat of communism, the need to strengthen the U.S. military and the importance of building a brighter future for America. Indeed, after Kennedy’s opening statement, Nixon said, “I subscribe completely to the spirit that Senator Kennedy has expressed tonight.” And yet, while most radio listeners called the first debate a draw or pronounced Nixon the victor, the senator from Massachusetts won over the 70 million television viewers by a broad margin.

For Trump to lose the debate he really doesn’t have to “lose it” unless the “lose” that is meant is his true self. If he doesn’t restrain his true self, the self we see at his rallies, in his interviews, and in his Truth Social Posts, and the self we saw in his NYC courthouse statements, he will lose.

For him to win, or at least have pundits call the debate a tie with polls showing that the debate didn’t change any votes, he has to demonstrate a command of the issues and express himself in an authoritative manner without appearing unhinged. If that word is used in the media to describe his debate performance he lost.

If Trump really has early dementia (as experts and others have speculated – see Google search for Trump dementia) since the debate is in the evening he may be sundowning. If the much of the news coverage uses the word dementia with examples of showing signs of this disease Trump will have lost too.

Biden doesn’t have to memorize responses to likely questions from moderators and to things Trump says. Although I expect he will practice he is capable of winging it. If anything he would do well to practice responding to Trump if he goes on an off the rails rant attacking him.

It’s possible that Trump’s narcissism will prevent him from having any debate preparation. He may view this as a waste of his time. It is better for Biden if Trump wings it because (as the MSNBC chyron says) the “unfiltered Trump will shake up the race.”

Back to the Kennedy Nixon debates from History.com:

Legacy of the Kennedy-Nixon Debates 

A month and a half later, Americans turned out to vote in record numbers. As predicted, it was a close election, with Kennedy winning the popular vote 49.7 percent to 49.5 percent. Polls revealed that more than half of all voters had been influenced by the Great Debates, while 6 percent claimed that the debates alone had decided their choice. 

Whether or not the debates cost Nixon the presidency, they were a major turning point in the 1960 race—and in the history of television. Televised debates have become a permanent feature of the American political landscape, helping to shape the outcomes of both primary and general elections. Along with distinguishing themselves from their opponents, candidates have the opportunity to showcase their oratory skills (or betray their inarticulateness), display their sense of humor (or reveal their lack thereof) and capitalize on their rivals’ gaffes (or seal their fate with a slip of the tongue). 

Two years after the Kennedy-Nixon debates, the man on the losing end acknowledged their importance—and his fatal misstep—in his 1962 memoir Six Crises: “I should have remembered that ‘a picture is worth a thousand words.’”

Trump doesn’t have the personal insight to reflect on his own shortcomings the way Nixon did when he wrote “I should have remembered that ‘a picture is worth a thousand words.’” If Trump is trounced in the debate he won’t be reflecting back that it was his arrogance and narcissism and that was the cause of this.

If narcissism and/or the inability to memorize answers to likely questions from moderators and attacks coming from Biden in a hinged (as opposed to unhinged) manner and a sensible rather than senile way he will lose the debate.

It may be difficult for headline writers not to title their articles as follows since the alliteration is so obvious:

Biden Trounces Trump

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